Talk about pioneering the wrong draft formula. The Blazers last took a college player from a top basketball program (Michigan State) in 2001 - Zach Randolph. Let's just assume Randolph is an all-star caliber player. Since 2001, Portland has drafted 6 players in the first round that were either from High School, Russia or a Junior College. Had they simply stayed with the simple formula of selecting players from top programs (which are presumably far easier to scout), they could have drafted some combination of Tayshaun Prince, Josh Howard and Charlie Villanueva. The following draft analysis looks at who the Blazers selected, and which college players were still available on the board...
2005:
6. Martell Webster (High School)
7. Charlie Villanueva (UConn) - Toronto
17. Danny Granger (New Mexico) - Indiana
2004:
13. Sebastian Telfair (High School)
22. Viktor Khryapa (Russia) via Trade
23. Sergei Monia (Russia) via Trade
15. Jameer Nelson (St. Joseph's) - Orlando via Trade
2003:
23. Travis Outlaw (High School)
29. Josh Howard (Wake Forest) - Dallas
2002:
21. Qyntel Woods (Northeast Mississippi CC)
23. Tayshaun Prince (Kentucky) - Detroit
2001:
19. Zach Randolph (Michigan State)
Tuesday, March 21, 2006
Monday, March 20, 2006
Scouts "Inc."
Off-topic as it relates to basketball, but I just couldn't resist...
According to ESPN.com, Scouts Inc. "breaks down film of every NFL game, college games and individual footage of college prospects, and our experts attend NFL training camps and both NFL and college games in person. They do everything their NFL counterparts do, but instead of internalizing this information, they write it exclusively for ESPN. Scouts, Inc., is dedicated to serving the hard-core football fan with thoughtful, in-depth analysis of NFL and college players, coaches and teams."
http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/story?id=1767169
Perhaps thats why I found the following post-draft, pre-season analysis of Charger's first round pick Shawne "Lights Out" Merriman:
"Possesses good lower body strength for size, plays with a mean streak and should be able to hold ground at the point of attack when lined up at linebacker. Shows great range, takes adequate pursuit angles and makes plays in pursuit. Plays with a great motor and always seems to be around the ball at the end of the play. Doesn't always use hands well, relies on quickness to slip blocks in the open field and has some problems making the play once an offensive lineman locks on. Lacks ideal size for an every-down defensive end, will need time to develop cover skills if moves to linebacker and probably won't make an immediate contribution on defense."
Merriman was selected to the Pro Bowl, and won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. According to Superbowl.com, he "finished the season ranked first among NFL rookies, and 15th overall, with 10 sacks. He made an immediate impact on the Chargers’ defense, recording 57 tackles, the fifth-highest total on the team" - and don't forget that he basically didn't play the first four or so games of the year.
Thankfully, Scouts Inc. isn't responsible for drafting on behalf of the Chargers.
According to ESPN.com, Scouts Inc. "breaks down film of every NFL game, college games and individual footage of college prospects, and our experts attend NFL training camps and both NFL and college games in person. They do everything their NFL counterparts do, but instead of internalizing this information, they write it exclusively for ESPN. Scouts, Inc., is dedicated to serving the hard-core football fan with thoughtful, in-depth analysis of NFL and college players, coaches and teams."
http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/story?id=1767169
Perhaps thats why I found the following post-draft, pre-season analysis of Charger's first round pick Shawne "Lights Out" Merriman:
"Possesses good lower body strength for size, plays with a mean streak and should be able to hold ground at the point of attack when lined up at linebacker. Shows great range, takes adequate pursuit angles and makes plays in pursuit. Plays with a great motor and always seems to be around the ball at the end of the play. Doesn't always use hands well, relies on quickness to slip blocks in the open field and has some problems making the play once an offensive lineman locks on. Lacks ideal size for an every-down defensive end, will need time to develop cover skills if moves to linebacker and probably won't make an immediate contribution on defense."
Merriman was selected to the Pro Bowl, and won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. According to Superbowl.com, he "finished the season ranked first among NFL rookies, and 15th overall, with 10 sacks. He made an immediate impact on the Chargers’ defense, recording 57 tackles, the fifth-highest total on the team" - and don't forget that he basically didn't play the first four or so games of the year.
Thankfully, Scouts Inc. isn't responsible for drafting on behalf of the Chargers.
Sunday, March 19, 2006
On the Verge
Player closest to becoming a perennial All-Star...
Jason Richardson. He's shooting 40% from 3-point land this year, has a solid mid-range game, can consistently take anyone in the league off the dribble, and practically jumps out the gym. Has increased his scoring average this season to 24 ppg vs. a career average of 19. His 44 point outburst in a road win against the Heat (and Wade specifically) on March 10th was the most impressive offensive showcase Ive seen all year (excluding the Mamba's 80 pointer); for most of the game, he was simply unguardable - total juggernaut.
Regrettably...In 2004, the Warriors re-signed Adonal Foyle to a six-year, $42 million contract. In 2005, Mullin gave Mike Dunleavy a 5-year, $44 million extension...Seriously. And apparently Golden State was close to landing Ron Artest, but for Mullin's reluctance to part with Ike Diogu.
At 28-37, G-State is currently last in the Pacific and second worst in the West. At this point, a clear commitment to Richardson is the franchise's only real slam dunk opportunity...
Jason Richardson. He's shooting 40% from 3-point land this year, has a solid mid-range game, can consistently take anyone in the league off the dribble, and practically jumps out the gym. Has increased his scoring average this season to 24 ppg vs. a career average of 19. His 44 point outburst in a road win against the Heat (and Wade specifically) on March 10th was the most impressive offensive showcase Ive seen all year (excluding the Mamba's 80 pointer); for most of the game, he was simply unguardable - total juggernaut.
Regrettably...In 2004, the Warriors re-signed Adonal Foyle to a six-year, $42 million contract. In 2005, Mullin gave Mike Dunleavy a 5-year, $44 million extension...Seriously. And apparently Golden State was close to landing Ron Artest, but for Mullin's reluctance to part with Ike Diogu.
At 28-37, G-State is currently last in the Pacific and second worst in the West. At this point, a clear commitment to Richardson is the franchise's only real slam dunk opportunity...
Saturday, March 18, 2006
Best ACC Freshman Ever?
Don't get me wrong, North Carolina happens to be my favorite college basketball team, but...
Tyler Hansbrough = "Best ACC Freshman Ever" - I don't know, maybe...
What I do know, is that his game won't translate to the NBA. He's not nearly athletic enough. Perhaps I really do need to make the switch to High-Def, because it doesn't appear as though he can jump more than 10 inches. Most of his shots come from off-balance, clumsy looking hook shots where he does a good job of using his body in a way that prevents his shot from being blocked. That wont work in the pros. And nor will his game. There are talks of him leaving after his Freshman year for the pros. Not a good idea. He needs to milk his entire four year career at North Carolina for everything its worth. At best, he's a C version of Brad Miller - but Brad Miller is one of the best passing big men in the game, and I've never seen those types of flashes from Hansbrough. More likely, he's a career role player, like former Jayhawks star Nick Collison.
Tyler Hansbrough = "Best ACC Freshman Ever" - I don't know, maybe...
What I do know, is that his game won't translate to the NBA. He's not nearly athletic enough. Perhaps I really do need to make the switch to High-Def, because it doesn't appear as though he can jump more than 10 inches. Most of his shots come from off-balance, clumsy looking hook shots where he does a good job of using his body in a way that prevents his shot from being blocked. That wont work in the pros. And nor will his game. There are talks of him leaving after his Freshman year for the pros. Not a good idea. He needs to milk his entire four year career at North Carolina for everything its worth. At best, he's a C version of Brad Miller - but Brad Miller is one of the best passing big men in the game, and I've never seen those types of flashes from Hansbrough. More likely, he's a career role player, like former Jayhawks star Nick Collison.
Friday, March 17, 2006
A Look Back, And a Look Forward.
Excerpt from ESPN / TheSportsGuy's website today (oh, and BTW - the Sports Guy might be the funniest guy on the planet - so, with all due respect):
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/060317
"John Hollinger stole my thunder here. Originally I wrote a longer section in this spot about how Dwyane Wade was the 2006 MVP -- how it wasn't even really that close, how he's the best two-way player in the league; how he's been scoring 33 a game and shooting 56 percent from the field for the past two months; how he's the one star in the league who can completely turn a game around in about 90 seconds; how he got over an early season funk of taking bad shots and makes the right decisions nearly all the time; how he's probably the toughest two-guard since the late-'90s MJ; how he's the most efficient superstar since the early-'90s MJ; how he's been on a mission since he didn't win the MVP at the All-Star Game; how he has a knack for raising his game when it matters -- and then Hollinger blew this same premise into an entire column. Beat me by one day. If it happens again, I'm going to have him killed.
Having clearly proven my prescience, and discerning NBA talent evaluation skills (the Curry and Chandler "suggestion" was quite accurate as well), Ive decided to return to the world of online blogging, if only to contribute my knowledge for public consumption.
So, without further adieu:
Channing Frye is currently the most overrated "prospect" in the league. He's a good player, but hardly a future all-star candidate. Simply not going to happen. He's got a good mid-range (18-foot) jumper, but so do many players. The reason he was considered soft in college (and slipped to the Knicks) was not because he couldn't shoot, but that he simply can't finish in the paint like the elite NBA players do; Shaq, Duncan, Mourning and now most notably, Stoudemire - when those players get the ball in the paint, they dunk the ball with the sole intention of breaking the rim. Frye simply doesn't have the raw athletic potential that someone like Dwight Howard does from that perspective. Frye will never amount to anything better than an Abdur-Rahim type player (which would actually be realizing his full potential). The Knicks should have traded him for some real talent when his perceived value was the most out of line - perhaps they wouldn't be in the severe predicament they are now.
Oh, and by the way, Nate Robinson is probably a close second in terms of overstated potential - he won't even be as valuable as Earl Boynkins, a career role-player / back-up.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/060317
"John Hollinger stole my thunder here. Originally I wrote a longer section in this spot about how Dwyane Wade was the 2006 MVP -- how it wasn't even really that close, how he's the best two-way player in the league; how he's been scoring 33 a game and shooting 56 percent from the field for the past two months; how he's the one star in the league who can completely turn a game around in about 90 seconds; how he got over an early season funk of taking bad shots and makes the right decisions nearly all the time; how he's probably the toughest two-guard since the late-'90s MJ; how he's the most efficient superstar since the early-'90s MJ; how he's been on a mission since he didn't win the MVP at the All-Star Game; how he has a knack for raising his game when it matters -- and then Hollinger blew this same premise into an entire column. Beat me by one day. If it happens again, I'm going to have him killed.
Here's the point: Miami is 20-4 over its past 24 games, mainly because of Dwyane Wade. I see them continuing to get better and better. Why? Because he keeps getting better and better. After MJ retired, did you ever think you would see another guard average 30-35 points a night, rack up another six rebounds and six assists per game, play world-class defense and shoot 55 percent from the field? Well, it's happening."
Having clearly proven my prescience, and discerning NBA talent evaluation skills (the Curry and Chandler "suggestion" was quite accurate as well), Ive decided to return to the world of online blogging, if only to contribute my knowledge for public consumption.
So, without further adieu:
Channing Frye is currently the most overrated "prospect" in the league. He's a good player, but hardly a future all-star candidate. Simply not going to happen. He's got a good mid-range (18-foot) jumper, but so do many players. The reason he was considered soft in college (and slipped to the Knicks) was not because he couldn't shoot, but that he simply can't finish in the paint like the elite NBA players do; Shaq, Duncan, Mourning and now most notably, Stoudemire - when those players get the ball in the paint, they dunk the ball with the sole intention of breaking the rim. Frye simply doesn't have the raw athletic potential that someone like Dwight Howard does from that perspective. Frye will never amount to anything better than an Abdur-Rahim type player (which would actually be realizing his full potential). The Knicks should have traded him for some real talent when his perceived value was the most out of line - perhaps they wouldn't be in the severe predicament they are now.
Oh, and by the way, Nate Robinson is probably a close second in terms of overstated potential - he won't even be as valuable as Earl Boynkins, a career role-player / back-up.
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